COVID-19 and the Climate Crisis

A thought-piece from Professor Richard Brook OBE FREng, Vice President, AIRTO, reflecting on lessons learned from tackling the COVID-19 pandemic relevant to the climate crisis.

COVID-19 and the Climate Crisis have a lot in common:

Both threaten to overcome us if we fail to get on top of them in good time.
Both are currently beyond our control and have evolved from very complex and only partially understood natural systems.
Both crises are compounded by the impact of human behaviour on their evolution, development and spread.
Both require international collaboration and co-ordinated action to mitigate their hugely damaging consequences for human life and sustainable socioeconomic systems.
Both are consequences of human development, of growing and increasingly mobile populations, and of higher density and resource-hungry living.

Climate change is developing at a slower pace than COVID-19 but equally threatens to disrupt the functioning of production and the supply chains needed to sustain modern economies. It is also true to say that the measures required to deal with reducing carbon emissions will require much longer to implement than vaccine development and roll out.

A key difference between COVID-19 and the challenge of attaining Net Zero carbon emissions, is the current lack of urgency on Net Zero, probably because people are not (yet) seen to be dying as a direct result of Net Zero. As such, actions to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 will for some time to come be more socially acceptable than with Net Zero. Even then, some people in society will again choose to ignore the sensible restrictions and required changes in behaviour.

Getting ahead of the curve

To be able to counter these powerful and rapidly evolving natural threats, we have to be able to ‘get and stay ahead of the curve’ and to regain control to the extent that we have the means to force these threats into reverse.

To do this we don’t have the luxury of being able to wait until we see what develops before reacting, or how successful our mitigations may be before moving on with additional countermeasures.

Control systems theory shows what happens if corrective actions are applied in arrears and how much longer it then takes to stabilise a system that is out of equilibrium. This is exacerbated by the long ‘reaction/feedback’ timescale for Net Zero carbon.

Therefore, we have to get ahead of the phenomena we are dealing with.

We are beginning to do that with COVID-19 but we have to do it also with the campaign for NetZero.

Requirement for strategy

Getting ahead requires a combination of in-depth scientific understanding, modelling, corrective measures based on prediction and a strategy for using such tools in a manner most likely to be successful. Strategy is important so that different efforts and initiatives don’t unintentionally interfere with each other and confuse, but instead reinforce the impact being sought.

Key components of the strategy to tackle Net Zero need to be, right ‘up front’:

deciding how best to organise and harness our resources, and
defining and agreeing roles: the vital role of government, alongside organised business-based collaborations, the work of the scientific research community and the efforts of individual citizens.

Government cannot afford to wait for climate impacts and evidence to emerge, or wait to see how effective various individual countermeasures will turn out to be before initiating further measures to prevent emissions or otherwise reduce carbon in the atmosphere. There must be therefore be a strategic, fast acting plan, driven through with leadership from the top. All stakeholders need to be proactive now, rather than reactive.

Need for research

So, how are we going to repair a very complex planetary system that we don’t fully understand and at the same time deal with the subjectivity and variability of human behaviour?

A research effort on the scale of that mobilised to develop COVID-19 vaccines, aimed at better understanding of how climate works, would pay dividends as would a government campaign to pull through delivery of carbon reducing changes. However, this time for Net Zero carbon, a much longer duration is needed, with better narratives to inform public opinion, decision making and development of new behaviours.

The vital importance of innovation

Whatever is decided, it is clear that reaching Net Zero will require innovation throughout the economy and society and commitment and support from both businesses and individuals, as well as, of course, government.

Innovation will be needed not just in technology but also in what we do, in the way we go about doing things and in our behaviours as individuals.
Innovations will only make an impact if we can ensure acceptance by the public, by businesses, by regulators and by policy makers.
This will require a real emphasis on communication, education and explanation to all concerned, and a thorough understanding of human behaviour and positive influencing

Initiating action

The scale of the Net Zero challenge is difficult to comprehend, and much bigger than any of us realise or can deal with. However, this should not prevent us from starting, it just may mean that roadmaps need to be fluid, as we progress and learn more (as per COVID-19).

Where to start?

There are some low regret decisions and actions that could and should start very quickly, such as scaling up the harnessing of renewables (wind, tidal, solar, geothermal power generation…)
Perhaps then by identifying major emissions ‘culprits’, particularly where they arise from geographically concentrated energy intensive sites (in foundation industries – glass, steel, cement manufacture – for example – and from traditional power generation from fossil fuels). Successful remedies and their impacts will be very visible and amenable treatment directly by big business.
Identify viable solutions (at business level, ideally with business cases, underpinned by government procurement as customer if necessary, in order to stimulate industry and investors to drive the solutions forward).
Raise government and private finance to implement, noting the success of government acting as customer to stimulate busines and investors in the development and supply of vaccines, medical intensive care equipment and personal protective equipment (PPE) during the COVID-19 crisis.
Work on explaining solutions and benefits in advance.
Fund differing approaches to reaching solutions in parallel to create options for take up.
Convene collaborative multi-capability teams to develop and demonstrate, around trusted not-for-profit leadership to avoid conflicts of commercial interest and to organise collaborative activity on neutral ground.
Demonstrate and roll out solutions at scale.

Some action agenda case studies

The community of Innovation, Research and Technology (IRT) sector organisations that AIRTO represents has been very active in convening and kicking off practical collaborative ventures tackling some of the most challenging areas of emissions reduction. All focussed in these cases on exploration, demonstration and adoption of changes that will make a significant difference on the global stage as well as in the UK. Examples include:

Foundation industries (Glass Futures). Supported by UKRI/IUK Glass Futures is creating with international partners a full-scale pilot plant in St Helens to develop, demonstrate and evaluate alternatives to traditional energy and fossil fuel intensive methods of glass production, in a real but off-line working production environment. It has already helped partners to demonstrate a global-first, ultra-low-carbon capability for manufacturing glass containers (bottles).
Renewable Energy/Power Generation (EMEC). The European Marine Energy Centre in Orkney has established a unique centre for developers of wave and tidal energy converters incorporating purpose built open-sea testing facilities. With 13 grid-connected test berths, there have been more marine energy converters deployed at EMEC than at any other site in the world. Furthermore, EMEC’s onshore plant for producing green hydrogen and its demonstration site for new hydrogen technologies are aimed at the eventual development of a hydrogen economy in Orkney.
Buildings and construction (BRE). BRE, in a project with British Gas, has retrofitted its 1998 era demonstration house with a host of ultra energy-efficient features and functions, from a new-to-market solar thermal system, PV array and heat pump to new materials incorporated throughout the structure and finishes. Alongside new and intelligent sensors and controls, these features have created what is now called The Smart Home. As a result, it is now 50% more energy efficient and carbon emissions have been halved.
Transport (HVM Catapult/WMG). The High Value Manufacturing Catapult Centre with partner Warwick Manufacturing Group played a critical role in bringing the Faraday Battery Challenge programme together, working with the Local Enterprise Partnership and local city council to realise the UK Battery Industrialisation Centre. This is a key element of the UK strategy to replace petrol and diesel vehicles with electric and low emission vehicles by 2040.
Fossil fuels reform (OGTC). Such is the importance of the Net Zero agenda that OGTC based in Aberdeen has re-orientated and restructured its entire portfolio of operations to drive a transition with industry partners to a Net Zero North Sea. This comprehensive vision focuses on evaluation and adoption of new technologies and development of the people and culture of innovation needed to deliver a reimagined North Sea. OGTC has already evaluated more than 1000 technologies, invested in more than 250 projects, delivered more than 50 field trials, grown more than 25 new companies and commercialised more than 20 new technologies since its inception in 2016.

Meanwhile, other members of the AIRTO community (notably the Met Office, for example) are tackling climate change fundamentals and measures to underpin resilience to its unavoidable impacts.

Conclusions and Lessons from COVID-19

In conclusion, lessons learned from tackling the COVID-19 pandemic relevant to the climate crisis include:

Marshal resources with great urgency as we have done to fight the pandemic, but learn lessons from how that has been managed, from both where that has been done well and from where it failed.
Look to embrace non-traditional and different ways of doing things (the very essence of innovation); and look also to foster a greater and more widespread understanding of the nature of risk and how to manage it; set out to be better at communicating, in order to get everyone on side, and to counter promotion of unfounded and perverse views denying the threat and/or opposing measures to protect everyone.
In building back from the COVID-19 pandemic, we have a huge opportunity to advance the cause of zero carbon and sustainable economic development and in so doing to demonstrate to the world that the UK has a leading role to play and an outstanding talent and capability for innovation.

Professor Richard Brook OBE FREng

Vice President, AIRTO

About AIRTO

AIRTO is the Association of Innovation, Research and Technology Organisations. Its membership comprises approximately sixty of the principal organisations operating in the UK’s Innovation, Research and Technology (IRT) sector. The IRT sector has a combined turnover of £6.9 billion, employing over 57,000 scientific and technical staff. The sector contributes £34 billion to UK GDP. AIRTO’s members work at the interface between academia and industry, for both private and public sector clients.

Members include independent Research and Technology Organisations, Catapult Centres, Public Sector Research Establishments, national Laboratories and some privately held innovation companies.

AIRTO operates a number of Special Interest Groups, bringing together its members, other professional representative organisations and governmental funders and departmental policy makers to discuss and advance key topics. It currently operates such groups addressing the agenda to boost R&D investment in the UK, and in particular support for translational and development work, and also a major Net Zero group to harness and galvanise the IRT sector’s involvement in enabling Net Zero targets to be realised as rapidly as possible.